Probability

Probability Overview
By Madison Nef

What is probability?
Probability deals in the realm of the unknown, and of all things we are uncertain of. Probability gives a meaningful numerical description to things that we admit to not knowing; so it gives us a sense of what to expect and an answer to our question that we can act on. A great example of this is the weather- If we hear a report saying there is an 80% chance of rain tomorrow, if you leave the house you are likely to take an umbrella. If the report was right, and it rains, then you are glad you brought an umbrella. If it doesn’t, there WAS after all a 20% chance of no rain, but better safe than sorry.

Examples of probability and more experiments using it came around in the early 1700’s. From 1730-1770, there was a smallpox epidemic in the US that killed fast. A vaccine was developed to cure it, but there was a one in two hundred chance of death in getting the vaccine. In today’s standards, that’s an incredibly high risk to take and a risk like that could be brought to the court of law. On the flip side of things, smallpox was said to kill one in every seven people who were not vaccinated; so in the long run it was a better choice to get the vaccine.

The earliest known example of probability, however, is when Antoine Gombaud asked two skilled mathematicians for gambling odds. The two mathematicians were Fermat and Pascal. Not much was told about them besides that they were the first people to really experiment with probability in the lecture, but it did bring up the sport of gambling. Gambling is one of the best examples of random events and possibilities simply due to the fact that many gambling games are built around probability and “luck”.  One of the worst forms of gambling that goes unnoticed is lottery tickets- to win the Powerball; there is a 1 in 75,000,000 chance. With such low odds, you’d think it a wonder that ANYONE ever wins- but the key factor is that SO MANY PEOPLE buy tickets with random numbers over and over again that it happens on a weekly basis. A theory in probability that I don’t necessarily agree with is that if you do something over and over again trying to get a rare result, it will EVENTUALLY happen. My problem with this is that just because it IS certain to happen does not mean you SHOULD do it… because God only knows how long it WOULD take.

In a game of poker, people are always looking for a good hand of cards. For example, everyone loses their mind if they get a royal flush- but no one cares if you get an average set of cards, such as a 2, 9, 5, 6, and Jack. In reality, you have the same chance of getting either set of cards because they are all coming out of the same deck, with the SAME chance of being in any particular order. It’s estimated that there are 2,750,000 different combinations of five cards you could be dealt in a game of poker- meaning if you play non-rigged games for the rest of your life, you probably will never get that same hand ever again.
Probability really is strange, but useful- and we use it everyday with knowing it to make decisions, whether big or small. We use it when determining to go out, what to wear, what to eat, and what to do… and most of us barely know how to use it properly. I’m glad I actually listened to these lectures because I actually DID pick up a few little bits and pieces from it that I will store in my memory and that may come in handy… so thank you.

Maddie